Arknights 5★ Pity Odds — Every Pull, Exact Probability
The complete rate table for Arknights: what each individual pull is worth, when soft pity kicks in, and your cumulative chance of a 5★ by any pull count. All numbers computed with the exact rate model — 2.0% base, soft pity from pull 50 (+2%/pull), hard pity at 300.
key numbers
Average 5★ rate (all pulls)
~0.4%
Median 5★ arrives at
35 pulls
90% chance by
59 pulls
Soft pity average rate
90.6%/pull
per-pull probability table
| Pull | Per-pull 5★ rate | Chance of first 5★ here | Cumulative (by this pull) | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.0% | 2.00% | 2.0% | BASE |
| 2 | 2.0% | 1.96% | 4.0% | BASE |
| 3 | 2.0% | 1.92% | 5.9% | BASE |
| 4 | 2.0% | 1.88% | 7.8% | BASE |
| 5 | 2.0% | 1.84% | 9.6% | BASE |
| 6 | 2.0% | 1.81% | 11.4% | BASE |
| 7 | 2.0% | 1.77% | 13.2% | BASE |
| 8 | 2.0% | 1.74% | 14.9% | BASE |
| 9 | 2.0% | 1.70% | 16.6% | BASE |
| 10 | 2.0% | 1.67% | 18.3% | BASE |
| 11 | 2.0% | 1.63% | 19.9% | BASE |
| 12 | 2.0% | 1.60% | 21.5% | BASE |
| 13 | 2.0% | 1.57% | 23.1% | BASE |
| 14 | 2.0% | 1.54% | 24.6% | BASE |
| 15 | 2.0% | 1.51% | 26.1% | BASE |
| 16 | 2.0% | 1.48% | 27.6% | BASE |
| 17 | 2.0% | 1.45% | 29.1% | BASE |
| 18 | 2.0% | 1.42% | 30.5% | BASE |
| 19 | 2.0% | 1.39% | 31.9% | BASE |
| 20 | 2.0% | 1.36% | 33.2% | BASE |
| 21 | 2.0% | 1.34% | 34.6% | BASE |
| 22 | 2.0% | 1.31% | 35.9% | BASE |
| 23 | 2.0% | 1.28% | 37.2% | BASE |
| 24 | 2.0% | 1.26% | 38.4% | BASE |
| 25 | 2.0% | 1.23% | 39.7% | BASE |
| 26 | 2.0% | 1.21% | 40.9% | BASE |
| 27 | 2.0% | 1.18% | 42.0% | BASE |
| 28 | 2.0% | 1.16% | 43.2% | BASE |
| 29 | 2.0% | 1.14% | 44.3% | BASE |
| 30 | 2.0% | 1.11% | 45.5% | BASE |
| 31 | 2.0% | 1.09% | 46.5% | BASE |
| 32 | 2.0% | 1.07% | 47.6% | BASE |
| 33 | 2.0% | 1.05% | 48.7% | BASE |
| 34 | 2.0% | 1.03% | 49.7% | BASE |
| 35 | 2.0% | 1.01% | 50.7% | BASE |
| 36 | 2.0% | 0.99% | 51.7% | BASE |
| 37 | 2.0% | 0.97% | 52.6% | BASE |
| 38 | 2.0% | 0.95% | 53.6% | BASE |
| 39 | 2.0% | 0.93% | 54.5% | BASE |
| 40 | 2.0% | 0.91% | 55.4% | BASE |
| 41 | 2.0% | 0.89% | 56.3% | BASE |
| 42 | 2.0% | 0.87% | 57.2% | BASE |
| 43 | 2.0% | 0.86% | 58.1% | BASE |
| 44 | 2.0% | 0.84% | 58.9% | BASE |
| 45 | 2.0% | 0.82% | 59.7% | BASE |
| 46 | 2.0% | 0.81% | 60.5% | BASE |
| 47 | 2.0% | 0.79% | 61.3% | BASE |
| 48 | 2.0% | 0.77% | 62.1% | BASE |
| 49 | 2.0% | 0.76% | 62.8% | BASE |
| 50 | 4.0% ↑ | 1.49% | 64.3% | SOFT STARTS |
| 51 | 6.0% ↑ | 2.14% | 66.5% | SOFT |
| 52 | 8.0% ↑ | 2.68% | 69.1% | SOFT |
| 53 | 10.0% ↑ | 3.09% | 72.2% | SOFT |
| 54 | 12.0% ↑ | 3.33% | 75.6% | SOFT |
| 55 | 14.0% ↑ | 3.42% | 79.0% | SOFT |
| 56 | 16.0% ↑ | 3.36% | 82.3% | SOFT |
| 57 | 18.0% ↑ | 3.18% | 85.5% | SOFT |
| 58 | 20.0% ↑ | 2.89% | 88.4% | SOFT |
| 59 | 22.0% ↑ | 2.55% | 91.0% | SOFT |
| 60 | 24.0% ↑ | 2.17% | 93.1% | SOFT |
| 61 | 26.0% ↑ | 1.78% | 94.9% | SOFT |
| 62 | 28.0% ↑ | 1.42% | 96.3% | SOFT |
| 63 | 30.0% ↑ | 1.10% | 97.4% | SOFT |
| 64 | 32.0% ↑ | 0.82% | 98.3% | SOFT |
| 65 | 34.0% ↑ | 0.59% | 98.9% | SOFT |
| 66 | 36.0% ↑ | 0.41% | 99.3% | SOFT |
| 67 | 38.0% ↑ | 0.28% | 99.5% | SOFT |
| 68 | 40.0% ↑ | 0.18% | 99.7% | SOFT |
| 69 | 42.0% ↑ | 0.11% | 99.8% | SOFT |
| 70 | 44.0% ↑ | 0.07% | 99.9% | SOFT |
| 71 | 46.0% ↑ | 0.04% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 72 | 48.0% ↑ | 0.02% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 73 | 50.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 74 | 52.0% ↑ | 0.01% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 75 | 54.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 76 | 56.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 77 | 58.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 78 | 60.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 79 | 62.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 80 | 64.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 81 | 66.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 82 | 68.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 83 | 70.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 84 | 72.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 85 | 74.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 86 | 76.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 87 | 78.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 88 | 80.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 89 | 82.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 90 | 84.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 91 | 86.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 92 | 88.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 93 | 90.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 94 | 92.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 95 | 94.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 96 | 96.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 97 | 98.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 98 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 99 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 100 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 101 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 102 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 103 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 104 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 105 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 106 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 107 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 108 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 109 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 110 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 111 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 112 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 113 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 114 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 115 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 116 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 117 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 118 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 119 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 120 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 121 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 122 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 123 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 124 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 125 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 126 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 127 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 128 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 129 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 130 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 131 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 132 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 133 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 134 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 135 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 136 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 137 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 138 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 139 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 140 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 141 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 142 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 143 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 144 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 145 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 146 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 147 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 148 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 149 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 150 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 151 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 152 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 153 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 154 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 155 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 156 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 157 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 158 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 159 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 160 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 161 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 162 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 163 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 164 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 165 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 166 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 167 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 168 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 169 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 170 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 171 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 172 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 173 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 174 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 175 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 176 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 177 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 178 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 179 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 180 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 181 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 182 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 183 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 184 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 185 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 186 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 187 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 188 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 189 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 190 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 191 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 192 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 193 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 194 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 195 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 196 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 197 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 198 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 199 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 200 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 201 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 202 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 203 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 204 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 205 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 206 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 207 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 208 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 209 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 210 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 211 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 212 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 213 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 214 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 215 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 216 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 217 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 218 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 219 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 220 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 221 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 222 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 223 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 224 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 225 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 226 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 227 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 228 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 229 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 230 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 231 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 232 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 233 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 234 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 235 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 236 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 237 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 238 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 239 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 240 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 241 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 242 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 243 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 244 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 245 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 246 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 247 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 248 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 249 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 250 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 251 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 252 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 253 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 254 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 255 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 256 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 257 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 258 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 259 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 260 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 261 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 262 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 263 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 264 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 265 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 266 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 267 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 268 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 269 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 270 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 271 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 272 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 273 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 274 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 275 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 276 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 277 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 278 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 279 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 280 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 281 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 282 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 283 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 284 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 285 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 286 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 287 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 288 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 289 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 290 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 291 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 292 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 293 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 294 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 295 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 296 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 297 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 298 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 299 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | SOFT |
| 300 | 100.0% ↑ | 0.00% | 100.0% | HARD PITY |
"Chance of first 5★ here" = probability that your very next 5★ lands on exactly this pull, starting from zero pity.
Cumulative = chance you've already pulled a 5★ by this point. Beyond 300 pulls is impossible — hard pity guarantees the 5★.
how to use this
- Most 5★ drop between pull 50 and 300 — the table shows why: after 50, the per-pull rate climbs from 2.0% toward 100%.
- If you're at pull 60 and the banner ends soon, the cumulative column tells you your realistic odds — combine with the banner countdown.
- Want your exact odds with your current pity + guarantee status? Use the pity calculator — it runs this same model with your state.
- Planning a budget? The pull planner projects your savings against these numbers.